I am 40. It makes no difference as to what to do. Just like getting married. One day I wasn’t, the next I was. No difference in how I lived my life. (Not the same with kids; those little buggers… Still love them and would not have it any other way.)
If you want to build strength (requirement #1) and get some fat off (requirement #2), you can do so if the caloric deficit from your maintenance is mild. If you aim for #2 more aggressively, #1 will be impacted. There are more detailed posts around the place here at BBM, but basically you can gain strength on a caloric deficit as there are neural pathways which improve in your actual lifts. If completely untrained there is more headroom for strength accumulation. There will come a soft ceiling where the neural adaptation is overridden by the lack of muscle mass and the only way to gain strength is to gain muscle (together with continuing neural adaptation, but as with everything there are diminishing returns the more advanced one gets).
The best way would be to find your maintenance calories, sit there for 2 weeks, then adjust down by say 250 calories (arbitrary, could be 200 could be 300). Stay there and if you are losing bodyfat, #2 is happening and if you are gaining strength #1 is happening at the same time. WIN! When bodyfat loss stalls (could be after 2 weeks, could be 6 weeks, could be longer or shorter, it depends), then cut another 250 calories and see if both #1 and #2 continue. Rinse and repeat. There will come a point where both #1 and #2 will stall. At that point you will need to decide is #1 more important or #2. If #1, then calories will need to come up. I recommend doing it the reverse of losing bodyfat, the so called reverse dieting approach, 250 calories at a time. If #2, then changing programming will be needed (actually it will probably be needed in both circumstances, and continue the gradual calorie cutting.
As for SS NLP, I did a modified version (less squatting and more deadlifting; happy to provide the breakdown if you want). You can do it or you can do The Bridge as I know Jordan has mentioned as his standard recommendation a few times for novices of late. Either way, you will probably only do the SS NLP for about 6 to 8 weeks. So it is only 2 months of your life. I can recommend not to listen to SS that the only way to get stronger is through a fork. Total bulldust.
Of course, the above is more nuanced that what I have laid out. Programming will have a bit to do with strength accumulation, thus the BBM templates and BBM type training.
I know this has not answered your question of which of the three caloric intakes is best for you. That is because I don’t know. You have to start somewhere. The keys in order of importance are: 1. caloric balance (energy in - energy out)
2. protein intake (200g is about right for a 205lbs male)
3. …
4. the rest (including carbs v fat amounts for the remaining calorie sources)… The above make fat loss, in my piddling opinion, less nuanced as it is. Number 1 in the list is the inviolate law of thermodynamics and number 2 is the protein required to maintain or gain muscle, and then the rest make up a lesser impact on the total fat loss (or muscle gain) equation. The caloric calculator I like to use is the Muller equation as it is quite recent, takes into account prior research, also takes into account age and bodyfat (approx). https://tdeecalculator.net/. I would ignore the fat loss / muscle gain calories further down the page. The incremental approach I suggest I feel is better and will individualise your caloric intake for your body and your training at that specific point in time.
Hope that helps.