Not really, no.
The 3500 Calorie “rule” posits that an energy deficit of 3500 Calories is required to lose 1 pound of body fat. This rule assumes an exclusive loss of adipose tissue and that 1 gram of fat contains 9 Calories of energy.
Adipose tissue is ~87% fat and also contains protein and water. 87% of 1 pound is 394 grams and at 9 Calories per gram yields 3546 Calories. Thus, a 3500 Calorie energy deficit= 1lb of weight loss, right?
Eh, not quite for a few non-measurement-related reasons:
- people lose lean body mass in concert with fat mass
- people can actively compensate to energy deficits in various ways to create smaller or larger than predicted weight loss
- the resultant energy deficit needed to lose weight changes over time, e.g. individuals with greater levels of body fat require a higher energy deficit per pound lost Measurement-wise, there are additional issues:
- Doubly-labeled water, the gold standard for measuring total daily energy expenditure outside the lab, has a ~ 5% measurement error and makes determining small changes in energy balance difficult
- Energy intake in individuals outside of metabolic ward trials is also very difficult to measure
- Weight change in humans, particularly achieving a new steady state, takes much longer than expected, e.g. close to a year. Using short-term changes (1-2 weeks) makes determining energy balance and its subsequent effects difficult.
In any case, the present evidence seems to suggest that every permanent 10 Calorie reduction per day will produce 1lb of weight loss when the bodyweight reaches a new steady state, which will take years.
While it’s very difficult to manage Calories with that level of precision, adjusting an individual’s food and eating environments along with other aids to improve satiety (e.g., exercise, medication, and surgery if indicated) produce spontaneous reductions in energy intake to long-term achieve weight loss.
With respect to muscle mass, the energy stored is ~564 Calories per pound and is made up of 65% protein, 44% fat, and 2% glycogen. We don’t know how much of an energy deficit is needed to lose “1 pound of muscle”, but most weight loss studies show ~ 75% of weight loss from body fat. This can be manipulated with exercise (particularly RT), diet (protein, carbohydrate, and energy deficit), sleep (less sleep= more LBM lost), and other factors.
Similarly, we don’t really know how much of a surplus is needed to gain 1 pound of muscle. It’s somewhat complicated to calculate, as it has to account for the energy costs of synthesizing muscle and its supportive infrastructure, combating muscle breakdown, storing energy (glycogen and fat), etc. on top of the body’s metabolic costs. Current estimates put the cost of creating 1lb of skeletal muscle is ~ 3700 Calories, though this is also influenced by time.